Sunday Mar 19th, 2023



Average Prices of Detached Homes in February in Comparison to February of 2022:

- Toronto: -18362% at $1,72M

- Vaughan: -13.47% at $1,91M

- Richmond Hill: -12.12% at $1,90M

- Mississauga: -19.47% at $1,54M

- Markham: -18.32% at $1,72M

- King City: +3.02% at $3,18M

- Newmarket: -18.28% at $1,31M

- Aurora: -19.88% at $1,56M

- Bradford: -21.84% at $1,12M

- Milton: -23.33% at $1,32M

- Stoufville: -25.60% at $1,48M

- Innisfil: -27.12% at $862,000

- Alliston: -20.25% at $906,000

- Burlington: -21.44% at $1,40M

- East Gwillimbury: -17.21% at $1,37M

- Barrie: -22.25% at $860,000

According to forecasters, the Canadian economy is supposed to be in a recession… it seems no one informed the jobs market. There’s a Canadian real estate correction? Apparently no one told Toronto. Canada added 150,000 jobs in January, according to Statistics Canada, marking the latest in a series of job reports that far surpassed predictions. Canada has now added 326,000 jobs since the beginning of September 2022. That is certainly not in line with the Bank of Canada's outlook.

The media reports sunshine or clouds based on the views presented by analysts who crunch mountains of economic data. As statistics continue to not follow a predictable economic model, it’s no wonder that opinions and outlooks are continuously shifting these days.

Do not expect real estate prices to fall much further. We are in a balanced market. The only way to see further significant price drops is if we experience an influx of Power of Sale properties on MLS where mortgage lenders force borrowers in default to sell. First-time homebuyers who shied away from purchases as mortgage rates rose are returning to the market along with people who simply need to move or have outgrown their homes.

Toronto average price is still up 30% since February of 2019. Stats don’t lie. What might happen for the rest of 2023? Historically, real estate prices increase by 4% per year. Two factors are responsible for this: the cost of new housing, which is always higher than resale due to inflation; and Immigration which increases the demand for housing. Over the past 3 years we have seen an increase of 30-40% followed by a decrease of 15-25%. The net effect is an average annual increase of 5%, slightly above the long-term average. The increases I forecast are below this average, but still positive as I do not expect a significant number of ‘power of sales.’ Prices may be lower in the first quarter, but will become positive by year end.

So, while conditions are not as frantic as they were in the pandemic, housing activity is picking up again. Does this mean the correction is over? Not exactly, it doesn’t indicate much in terms of market direction. One month doesn’t make a trend, and prices never move in a straight line. Most corrections also face a period where a group of consumers on the sideline jump in and call a bottom.

It is important to stay informed and be prepared to act quickly if you find the right opportunity.

𝙋𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚 𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙡 𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙖 𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙯𝙚𝙙 𝙨𝙖𝙡𝙚𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙩 𝙤𝙧 𝙣𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙗𝙤𝙧𝙝𝙤𝙤𝙙.

𝑭𝒖𝒂𝒅 𝑨𝒃𝒂𝒔𝒐𝒗

Real Estate Broker, ABR, SRS, RENE, E-PRO

Right at Home Realty, Brokerage

Direct: +1 647-801-3401

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